Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d7…7661 crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (589 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,142 (+5%) realized +$4,003 · open −$1,861
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 128L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day589.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2,479
other 2% +$42
world 0% −$3
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (589 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 27% +0.6%
≤30d 218 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 27% +0.6%
≤90d 218 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 27% +0.6%
all 218 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 27% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover589.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 27% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 18% -9.0%
15% -27.5% 13% -17.8%
20% -34.6% 11% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$49 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$4,003
Unrealized−$1,861
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)218 / 221
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$185
Trades / day589.1
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1,400 $2 −$1,398 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $461 $1 −$459 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $316 +$194 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,249 −$289 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $518 +$400 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $577 −$325 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $449 +$530 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $551 +$129 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,151 +$1,060 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $776 +$343 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $812 −$812 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,241 −$61 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2,184 +$288 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,510 −$220 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1,355 −$1,310 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,152 −$489 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $844 +$247 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,876 +$1,035 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $880 +$234 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,307 +$241 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $307 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,975 +$708 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,153 +$702 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,240 +$786 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $841 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $722 +$72 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $942 −$139 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $715 +$1,374 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,004 −$202 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $706 +$303 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $576 +$51 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $252 +$368 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$337 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $69 +$87 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$56 +158%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $125 −$12 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $53 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $274 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $226 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $284 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $210 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $855 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $345 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $354 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $458 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $263 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $361 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $619 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $622 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $314 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $252 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $980 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.12 · official $10.12 (match) · 3500 history records