Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d6…26f6 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
politics 37% −$1
economics 6% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 0% -9.8%
all 16 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage102d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $92 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 14h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $87 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 22d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 22d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $88 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $90 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $90 36d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $90 38d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $90 38d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $91 63d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $91 63d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $91 66d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 66d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $82 66d
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $91 72d
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $91 72d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $91 79d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $92 79d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $92 84d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $92 85d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 93d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 93d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $92 95d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $92 96d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $92 98d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $92 98d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $92 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records