Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x62d6…54e8 sports 636 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,055 (+9%) realized +$6,030 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate61%378W / 237L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$316est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$232
7 days+$42
14 days−$19
30 days−$1,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2,065
sports 45% +$4,001
politics 5% −$229
weather 2% −$231
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$61
world 0% +$177
crypto 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -34.3% -40.6% 45% 27% -8.0%
≤30d 146 -23.5% -30.8% 45% 39% -21.1%
≤90d 330 +13.5% +2.7% 66% 51% +0.9%
all 615 +10.6% +0.1% 61% 43% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 43% -1.2%
10% -9.5% 33% -10.6%
15% -18.2% 27% -19.3%
20% -26.3% 22% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$32 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$1,358
Realized+$6,030
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses378 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$316
Open positions19
Markets (closed)615 / 636
History coverage157d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 615 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 70¢ $239 $236 −$3 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $101 $165 +$64 (+63%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $149 $161 +$12 (+8%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $133 $157 +$24 (+18%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $123 $150 +$27 (+22%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 44¢ $176 $125 −$52 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 86¢ $18 $26 +$8 (+47%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Will Sam Surridge win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+1179%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be named to the 2026 PFA Premier League Team of the Year? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Petar Musa win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $1 $9 +$7 (+526%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-83%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 99¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? Jun 22 $659 +$33 +5%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $700 +$38 +5%
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? Jun 22 $97 +$42 +43%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 21 $436 +$267 +61%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $25 −$14 -54%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $136 +$84 +62%
Valorant: Asterisk vs No Salary Peek (BO3) - VCL South Asia: Regular S Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Spread: Chile (-2.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any match last over 70 minutes at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $110 +$58 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $699 +$236 +34%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 09 $25 −$2 -8%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $60 −$10 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $28 +$22 +79%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 09 $26 +$24 +91%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Jun 08 $25 +$16 +64%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $26 +$16 +65%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $31 +$19 +62%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $26 +$19 +73%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $29 +$27 +96%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $390 +$63 +16%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 07 $25 +$23 +90%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $50 +$10 +20%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: CHAOS (-1.5) vs MANA eSports (+1.5) Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? SELL No 100¢ $358 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $521 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 93¢ $209 1h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $216 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 91¢ $38 1h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $304 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? SELL No 100¢ $330 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? BUY No 97¢ $335 1h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $396 2h
Will HEROIC make a roster change before August? SELL Yes 91¢ $138 2h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 20¢ $26 4h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $703 26h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $30 26h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $10 26h
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 79¢ $166 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 20¢ $12 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $25 29h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $195 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $170 7d
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $9 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $110 8d
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $9 9d
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $4 9d
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $10 9d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 55¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,357.58 · official $1,386.29 · 2478 history records