Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d5…bc0c sports 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%209W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day22.9pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days−$1,314
14 days−$1,144
30 days−$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$320
other 16% +$173
world 13% −$327
politics 3% +$297
crypto 2% −$569
tech 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -6.4% -15.3% 44% 42% -23.7%
≤30d 308 +5.8% -4.2% 55% 53% -7.9%
≤90d 380 +5.6% -4.4% 55% 53% -7.2%
all 380 +5.6% -4.4% 55% 53% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 53% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 51% -16.0%
15% -21.9% 43% -24.2%
20% -29.6% 32% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$55 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,188
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses209 / 171
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions10
Markets (closed)380 / 395
History coverage43d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day22.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 58¢ 80¢ $207 $282 +$75 (+36%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $110 $136 +$26 (+23%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $130 $136 +$6 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $200 $131 −$69 (-34%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $128 $126 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 39¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $51 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$156 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $61 +$38 +62%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $257 +$13 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 −$85 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$58 +188%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $147 +$98 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 +$47 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $49 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $92 −$78 -85%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $88 +$88 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $230 −$25 -11%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $122 +$26 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$6 -39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $231 +$8 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$22 +218%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $182 −$3 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $214 +$191 +89%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $353 −$350 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$21 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 +$160 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$63 +123%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$34 -67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 −$19 -62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 +$48 +158%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $843 −$622 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $83 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $10 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 19¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 28¢ $7 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 70¢ $56 8h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 36¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $30 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 62¢ $40 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $61 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $30 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 58¢ $15 14h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $108 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 21h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $89 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,187.59 · official $1,187.77 (match) · 1115 history records