Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d3…e694 weather 520 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,030 (-1%) realized −$1,061 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%425W / 86L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$13
14 days+$167
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% −$954
crypto 10% +$67
sports 3% −$229
world 0% −$2
other 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.0% -10.4% 94% 9% -9.6%
≤30d 167 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 459 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 13% -11.0%
all 511 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 15% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 15% -10.8%
10% -19.2% 5% -19.3%
15% -27.0% 3% -27.1%
20% -34.2% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$46 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,829
Realized−$1,061
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses425 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)511 / 520
History coverage130d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $812 $814 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $199 $200 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $193 $200 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $198 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $169 $179 +$10 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 87¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $633 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $140 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $87 −$47 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $543 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $344 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $314 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $415 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $312 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $432 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $375 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $86 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $107 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $193 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $258 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $188 −$144 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $810 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $305 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $666 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $305 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $213 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $785 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $812 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $99 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $11 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $48 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 80¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $47 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,829.41 · official $1,829.41 (match) · 2483 history records