Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d3…7c1b crypto 38 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+21%) realized +$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$20
sports 11% +$3
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.8% +2.1% 48% 41% +21.3%
≤30d 35 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 31% +8.5%
≤90d 35 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 31% +8.5%
all 35 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 31% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 31% +8.5%
10% -28.8% 29% -1.9%
15% -35.7% 26% -11.4%
20% -42.0% 23% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 33¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 41¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+101%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$38 +726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $7 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.21 · official $6.21 (match) · 102 history records