Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d2…9eb7 other 249 markets active 474d ago coverage 162d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$277,623 (+16%) realized +$277,623 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%178W / 71L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$7,139per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$173,352
world 28% +$109,985
other 21% +$97,350
crypto 4% +$5,571
sports 1% +$3,473
weather 0% +$746
tech 0% +$338
culture 0% +$249
economics 0% +$4,835
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 249 +62.4% +46.9% 71% 37% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.9% 37% +10.2%
10% ← realistic here +32.9% 29% -0.3%
15% +20.0% 23% -9.9%
20% +8.3% 19% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$3,795) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +91% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,590 vs −$918 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.07 per $1 lost it wins $7.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$277,623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses178 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$7,139
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July? Sep 23 $2,250 +$250 +11%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 11 $2,213 +$118 +5%
Will Adrian Dittman prove he's not Elon Musk? Mar 05 $1,024 +$28 +3%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 27 $730 +$82 +11%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $524 −$87 -17%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $1,263 +$6 +0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Jan 21 $1,224 +$39 +3%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Beverly Hills by Sunday? Jan 20 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 19? Jan 20 $231 +$19 +8%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? Jan 20 $4,924 +$291 +6%
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12? Jan 20 $642 +$358 +56%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 20 $5,247 +$2,709 +52%
Tom Holland and Zendaya engaged in 2025? Jan 10 $2,036 −$34 -2%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 10 $2,105 −$5 -0%
New pandemic before July? Jan 10 $2,224 +$25 +1%
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration? Jan 10 $2,384 +$137 +6%
New pandemic in 2025? Jan 10 $4,070 −$20 -0%
US inauguration on January 20? Jan 10 $4,851 +$73 +2%
Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? Jan 10 $4,885 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 10 $26,745 +$2,877 +11%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 19? Jan 09 $272 −$21 -8%
Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by Sunday? Jan 09 $977 +$20 +2%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 09 $4,955 +$45 +1%
Will the Palisades wildfire be contained by Friday? Jan 09 $4,768 +$141 +3%
Palisades wildfire containment >0% by Sunday? Jan 08 $198 +$25 +13%
Palisades wildfire burns 10,000 acres by Friday? Jan 08 $2,328 +$579 +25%
Lana Del Rey divorce in 2025? Jan 07 $339 +$80 +24%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 06 $960 +$25 +3%
Will 'Wicked' win the Golden Globe for Best Musical or Comedy? Jan 06 $735 −$735 -100%
Will BTS announce a new world tour in 2025? Jan 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win the Golden Globe for Best Actor - Drama? Jan 06 $270 −$270 -100%
Will 'El Mal' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song? Jan 06 $708 +$982 +139%
Will Ariana Grande win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress - Jan 06 $301 −$301 -100%
Will 'Conclave' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay? Jan 06 $102 +$572 +560%
Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025? Jan 06 $189 +$86 +45%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Jan 05 $1,192 +$3,521 +295%
U.S. government admits they are operating mystery drones? Jan 05 $746 +$4 +0%
Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024? Jan 05 $232 +$1,487 +640%
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce break up in 2024? Jan 05 $1,430 +$15 +1%
COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 05 $11,489 +$1,748 +15%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024? Jan 05 $14,847 +$1,160 +8%
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024? Jan 05 $9,493 +$3,752 +40%
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? Jan 05 $14,126 +$15,594 +110%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,463 −$4,463 -100%
Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,463 −$4,463 -100%
Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,460 −$4,460 -100%
James Norton announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,462 −$4,462 -100%
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,460 −$4,460 -100%
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,456 −$4,456 -100%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Dec 28 $4,456 −$3,495 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $1,020 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $59 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $57 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $10 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $40 474d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL No 60¢ $313 474d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $146 517d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $8 517d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $1 517d
Will Adrian Dittman prove he's not Elon Musk? BUY No 98¢ $9 522d
Will Adrian Dittman prove he's not Elon Musk? BUY No 98¢ $971 522d
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? SELL Yes $2 522d
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,263 523d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $1 532d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $3 533d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $1 533d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $30 533d
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? BUY No 93¢ $857 534d
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? BUY No 90¢ $9 534d
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? BUY No 89¢ $287 534d
Will the Palisades fire be 50% contained by January 12? BUY No 76¢ $181 534d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? SELL No 73¢ $10 534d
Tom Holland and Zendaya engaged in 2025? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,002 534d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? SELL No 60¢ $2,100 534d
New pandemic before July? SELL No 90¢ $2,249 534d
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration? SELL Yes 97¢ $2,520 534d
New pandemic in 2025? SELL No 81¢ $405 534d
New pandemic in 2025? SELL No 81¢ $3,645 534d
US inauguration on January 20? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,925 534d
Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,885 534d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.74 · official $993.74 (match) · 3500 history records