Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d2…9675 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 495d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-10%) realized −$219 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$425
7 days−$439
14 days−$458
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$477
sports 27% +$73
politics 15% +$72
world 11% +$82
crypto 2% −$7
economics 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -44.0% -49.3% 15% 15% -53.2%
≤30d 15 -50.6% -55.3% 13% 13% -54.1%
≤90d 15 -50.6% -55.3% 13% 13% -54.1%
all 29 -21.1% -28.6% 31% 28% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 28% -20.0%
10% -35.4% 21% -27.7%
15% -41.7% 21% -34.7%
20% -47.4% 17% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

495d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage495d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $141 +$71 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $102 −$76 -74%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$24 -47%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$46 -89%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$159 +388%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 22 $14 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 26 $50 −$32 -64%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $100 +$59 +59%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $50 +$95 +190%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 21? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $20 +$22 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 14? Nov 14 $30 −$5 -17%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $140 +$108 +77%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 12 $100 −$19 -19%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 12 $100 −$17 -17%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $403 +$55 +14%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 01 $11 +$2 +14%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Feb 15 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $26 19h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 20h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes $27 20h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes $6 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $141 26h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $51 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $103 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $31 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 10d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $4 94d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $0 94d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $0 94d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $8 94d
Clippers vs. Mavericks SELL Mavericks 69¢ $14 94d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks $1 94d
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? BUY Yes $40 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.05 · official $198.05 (match) · 67 history records