Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x62d2…1b70 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,940 (-18%) realized −$6,231 · open +$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$517per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$7,635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$532
7 days−$6,393
14 days−$6,433
30 days−$6,433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$6,551
other 49% +$450
crypto 2% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +10.0% -0.4% 49% 47% -36.1%
≤30d 48 +9.7% -0.7% 48% 46% -35.4%
≤90d 48 +9.7% -0.7% 48% 46% -35.4%
all 48 +9.7% -0.7% 48% 46% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 46% -35.4%
10% -10.2% 44% -41.6%
15% -18.9% 38% -47.2%
20% -26.9% 23% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$475 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$7,635
Realized−$6,231
Unrealized+$291
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions15
Markets (closed)48 / 64
History coverage16d
Avg bet$517
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,627 $1,761 +$134 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1,580 $1,320 −$259 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $883 $1,309 +$426 (+48%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,100 $1,262 +$162 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,000 $839 −$161 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $530 $525 −$5 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 +$60 +197%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $302 +$88 +29%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$7 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$21 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 +$655 +214%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7,385 −$5,778 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,360 −$2,459 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$306 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$135 -44%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $137 +$54 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $306 −$238 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $307 +$1,210 +395%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 +$76 +25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $210 −$119 -56%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$334 -82%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 +$463 +113%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,027 −$168 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $610 −$412 -68%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $267 −$169 -64%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $164 −$156 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$136 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $307 +$132 +43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 −$36 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,121 +$1,153 +103%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$46 -88%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $459 −$372 -81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $761 +$518 +68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$117 -57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $310 +$279 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $306 −$215 -70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 −$105 -34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $453 +$196 +43%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $720 −$41 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $81 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $30 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $20 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $29 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $201 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 29h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $30 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $15 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $31 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $35 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $41 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,635.21 · official $7,635.21 (match) · 179 history records