Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:28:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62d2…3343 politics 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 149L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$11
other 26% −$20
sports 24% −$21
crypto 11% −$20
world 5% −$4
culture 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% +$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
all 162 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage162d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $207 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $569 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $206 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $207 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $534 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 31 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $174 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $148 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 28 $64 +$3 +4%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $301 −$9 -3%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 28 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $154 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 8d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 15d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $7 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $7 34d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $38 35d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $4 35d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $10 35d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $25 35d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 62d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 62d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 62d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $49 62d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $62 62d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $62 63d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $56 63d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $56 63d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 63d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $66 63d
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 63d
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 64d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 64d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 64d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $62 64d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $62 64d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 65d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $45 65d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $50 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.20 · official $68.20 (match) · 674 history records