Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62cf…43ed crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%34W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day39.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days−$24
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$255
sports 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 41% -10.5%
≤30d 66 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 47% -2.8%
≤90d 66 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 47% -2.8%
all 66 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 47% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 42% -12.1%
15% -30.2% 38% -20.6%
20% -37.0% 33% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$30 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses34 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage7d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day39.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $208 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$151 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $99 +$87 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $97 +$80 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $93 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$89 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $122 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $96 +$25 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $95 −$90 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $166 −$49 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$113 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$66 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $83 −$79 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$30 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$33 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$25 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$45 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$21 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $294 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $208 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $84 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $186 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $99 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $78 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $178 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $97 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $116 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $166 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $90 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $227 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $114 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $119 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $53 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records