Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62cc…7fa8 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$50 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$104
14 days+$128
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$24
sports 32% +$26
world 13% +$35
crypto 5% −$4
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +15.7% +4.7% 47% 47% +34.0%
≤30d 22 +44.2% +30.5% 50% 50% +39.1%
≤90d 41 +3.5% -6.3% 37% 37% +1.7%
all 42 +1.0% -8.6% 36% 36% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 36% +0.3%
10% -17.3% 31% -9.3%
15% -25.3% 29% -18.0%
20% -32.6% 21% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)42 / 58
History coverage91d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$19 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$4 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 +$6 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $3 +$17 +567%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? May 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Maccabi Tel Aviv FC win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $3 $0 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $73 −$40 -55%
Will a team from Germany be the 2026 Champions League winner? Apr 28 $20 −$13 -68%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 26 $8 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 07 $2 $0 -7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $21 −$1 -5%
Will a team from Spain be the 2026 Champions League winner? Apr 07 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $10 −$9 -95%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $23 +$19 +84%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $17 −$10 -57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 25h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 41h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 41h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $5 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 52¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.23 · official $121.24 (match) · 119 history records