Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ca…1760 other 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,349 (-2%) realized −$22,606 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate16%56W / 301L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,677per market
Trades / day52.1pace
Fees−$1,566est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$4,871now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$35,702
sports 9% +$14,597
world 2% +$19,880
crypto 1% +$5,016
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-67.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -91.9% -92.7% 4% 4% -85.6%
≤30d 258 -81.3% -83.1% 9% 9% -58.7%
≤90d 357 -63.6% -67.1% 16% 15% -38.9%
all 357 -63.6% -67.1% 16% 15% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.1% 15% -38.9%
10% -70.2% 15% -44.7%
15% ← realistic here -73.1% 15% -50.1%
20% -75.7% 15% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$7,593) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,845 vs −$4,636 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$4,871
Realized−$22,606
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses56 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$1,566
Open positions3
Markets (closed)357 / 151
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$8,677
Trades / day52.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 8¢ 8¢ $2,131 $2,264 +$133 (+6%)
Spain leading at halftime? No 25¢ 24¢ $1,939 $1,901 −$39 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $544 $706 +$162 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4,919 −$4,919 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 15 $6,838 −$6,838 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-09? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Jun 15 $1,705 −$1,705 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 Jun 15 $1,148 −$1,148 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Jun 15 $1,183 −$1,183 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 15 $16,600 −$16,600 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 15 $622 −$622 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-19? Jun 15 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $3,201 −$3,201 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Jun 15 $834 −$834 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13? Jun 15 $2,453 −$2,453 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-21? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-02-04? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,942 −$4,942 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-19? Jun 15 $36,986 −$36,986 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-21? Jun 15 $5,328 −$5,328 -100%
Miami Open: Terence Atmane vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,246 −$1,246 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-02-28? Jun 15 $360 −$360 -100%
Miami Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $4,529 −$4,529 -100%
UFC 326: Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar (Flyweight, Early Prelims) Jun 15 $2,054 −$2,054 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? Jun 15 $8,315 −$8,315 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Jun 15 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Celtics vs. Lakers Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 15 $5,007 −$5,007 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-02-01? Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $693 −$693 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-08? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-27? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-09? Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-06? Jun 15 $2,566 −$2,566 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17? Jun 15 $501 −$501 -100%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Jun 15 $3,008 −$3,008 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 15 $11,090 −$11,090 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-01? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
England vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $691 −$691 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 15 $720 −$720 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $8,094 −$8,094 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-07? Jun 15 $418 −$418 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Jun 15 $11,356 −$11,356 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? Jun 15 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-02-26? Jun 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $1,022 14m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $690 17m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $270 25m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $548 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $3,699 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $7,257 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $5,810 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $4,875 3h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $53 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 64¢ $98 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $15 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $407 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $98 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $407 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3,360 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $3,481 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $300 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $186 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $260 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1,853 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 8¢ $622 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $94 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,252 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $10 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $3 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $4 6h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $39 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,870.70 · official $4,870.70 (match) · 3500 history records