Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62c8…08d4 crypto 226 markets active 1d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$42 (-10%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%113W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$40
weather 7% −$14
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.4% -35.2% 20% 20% -38.5%
≤30d 140 -22.9% -30.3% 46% 36% -22.4%
≤90d 226 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 31% -21.3%
all 226 -19.0% -26.7% 50% 31% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 31% -21.3%
10% -33.7% 25% -28.9%
15% -40.1% 19% -35.7%
20% -46.0% 12% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses113 / 113
Open positions0
Markets (closed)226 / 226
History coverage86d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 226 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 24? May 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 23? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 23? May 22 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 22 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 21 $3 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 30h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 31h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? SELL Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 552 history records