Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x62c3…b47a politics 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 702d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$9,114 (-18%) realized −$9,029 · open −$85
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$606
7 days+$576
14 days+$576
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$5,971
other 11% −$375
sports 9% −$2,042
crypto 1% −$529
world 1% −$218
economics 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 62% 38% +5.8%
≤30d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 62% 38% +5.8%
≤90d 13 -5.3% -14.3% 62% 38% +5.8%
all 96 -12.6% -20.9% 41% 31% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 31% -26.2%
10% -28.5% 27% -33.3%
15% -35.4% 17% -39.7%
20% -41.7% 12% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$360 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

702d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$9,029
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage702d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $369 $306 −$63 (-17%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 38¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $307 +$4 +1%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $112 +$288 +257%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,372 +$638 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $138 +$12 +9%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $124 −$124 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $280 +$20 +7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $165 −$134 -81%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $571 −$460 -80%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $150 +$47 +31%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $597 +$403 +67%
Allen vs. de Ridder Oct 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Trump wins 287-251 - AZ, GA, NV, NC, PA Dec 04 $247 −$247 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Dec 04 $4,504 −$1,979 -44%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34 Dec 04 $160 −$160 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64 Dec 04 $500 −$500 -100%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 15-34 Dec 04 $457 −$457 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4 Dec 04 $646 −$646 -100%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 5-14 Dec 04 $1,325 −$1,325 -100%
Trump blowout victory? Dec 04 $400 +$110 +28%
Kamala Harris blowout victory? Dec 04 $416 +$131 +32%
Will a Republican win Iowa Presidential Election? Dec 04 $4,180 +$802 +19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Trump say "Women's sports" during all female town hall? Oct 31 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" 3 or more times during Arizona rally on Oct Oct 31 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26? Oct 31 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Trump say "Catholic" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 31 $104 +$81 +78%
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting? Oct 20 $69 −$24 -35%
Will Trump say "every state is a border state" during Arizona rally on Oct 14 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Trump say "million" 15 or more times during Arizona rally on Octo Oct 14 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Crooked Joe" 4 or more times during Ar Oct 14 $61 +$16 +27%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Arizona rally on Octob Oct 14 $182 +$16 +9%
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October Oct 14 $171 +$48 +28%
Will Trump say "hispanic" during Arizona rally on October 13? Oct 14 $56 +$644 +1150%
Will Mira Murati join Anthropic? Oct 13 $41 −$15 -38%
Israel declares war on Iran in October? Oct 13 $416 −$218 -52%
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during California rally on Oct Oct 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "tampon" during California rally on October 12? Oct 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during California rally on Octobe Oct 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "trans" during California rally on October 12? Oct 13 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during California rally on Oct Oct 13 $16 +$7 +47%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during California rally on October 1 Oct 13 $142 +$40 +28%
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during California rally on Octob Oct 13 $115 +$77 +67%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during California rally on Oc Oct 13 $248 +$83 +33%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during California rally on Octob Oct 13 $285 +$236 +83%
Will Trump say "Alaska" during California rally on October 12? Oct 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Colorado rally on Octo Oct 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during Colorado rally on October 11? Oct 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 60¢ $311 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 27¢ $25 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 27¢ $94 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 30¢ $59 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 31¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 29¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 34¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 34¢ $112 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 35¢ $86 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 33¢ $23 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 32¢ $175 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 28¢ $115 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 33¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 56¢ $228 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 60¢ $180 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $80 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 45¢ $3 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 66¢ $79 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $18 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 26¢ $66 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $9 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $17 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $1 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $27 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 11h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $13 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.77 · official $305.77 (match) · 402 history records