Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62c1…cfaf sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,139 (-8%) realized −$2,214 · open +$75
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%54W / 40L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$269
7 days+$244
14 days+$323
30 days+$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,342
other 24% +$288
world 9% −$96
politics 1% +$92
weather 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +7.5% -2.7% 65% 41% -1.3%
≤30d 22 +10.4% -0.1% 68% 50% -1.0%
≤90d 94 -14.2% -22.4% 57% 34% -17.1%
all 94 -14.2% -22.4% 57% 34% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 34% -17.1%
10% -29.8% 19% -25.0%
15% -36.6% 10% -32.3%
20% -42.8% 5% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$102 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$838
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized+$75
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions6
Markets (closed)94 / 100
History coverage57d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 44¢ 82¢ $176 $330 +$154 (+87%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $350 $270 −$80 (-23%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 46¢ 95¢ $87 $178 +$92 (+106%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs summer bear 19¢ 46¢ $19 $46 +$28 (+145%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 45¢ $123 $12 −$110 (-90%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 28¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $65 +$15 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$10 +17%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $136 −$74 -54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 20 $275 −$275 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $79 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $213 +$26 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $383 +$33 +9%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $326 −$26 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $102 +$18 +18%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $69 +$130 +188%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $164 +$15 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $302 +$8 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $300 +$26 +9%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $187 +$343 +184%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $399 −$31 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $370 +$108 +29%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $20 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2 +$1 +41%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) - LCP Regular Seas May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 5? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 140-150mm of precipitation in April? May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 May 16 $2,529 −$2,529 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? May 16 $687 −$541 -79%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $3 $0 -14%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $128 −$109 -85%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $119 +$5 +4%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $3 +$1 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $3 $0 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 05 $4 $0 +7%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2 +$1 +34%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $2 +$1 +32%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 03 $1 $0 +22%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $3 +$7 +237%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: May 02 $3 $0 +8%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 02 $3 $0 +14%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $24 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $18 +$6 +30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $14 +$4 +30%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $25 −$10 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY summer bear 19¢ $19 14m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $80 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 29¢ $4 42m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 29¢ $13 43m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 41¢ $53 53m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 15¢ $3 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 81¢ $65 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $41 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $50 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $22 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $39 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $40 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $112 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $49 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $213 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $21 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $79 37h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 37h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $256 47h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $74 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $161 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $224 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 70¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.12 · official $838.12 (match) · 359 history records