Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:56:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bf…f733 sports 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-4%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day121.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$9
other 38% −$2
world 11% +$1
crypto 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 36% -17.4%
≤30d 50 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 36% -17.4%
≤90d 50 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 36% -17.4%
all 50 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 36% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 30% -25.3%
15% -33.3% 10% -32.5%
20% -39.8% 8% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)50 / 68
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day121.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 74¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 78¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 43¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Over 56¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 34¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? No 86¢ 77¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Roberto Carballes Baena 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 +29%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -71%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -26%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $2 $0 -27%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $2 −$1 -29%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2 $0 -27%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 -25%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +28%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 $0 -24%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $2 −$1 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -27%
ITF San Gregorio: Miriana Tona vs Marta Lombardini Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -69%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$1 -31%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 1m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 25m
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL No 15¢ $0 36m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 94¢ $3 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 34¢ $2 44m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 44m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 45m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $1 46m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 39¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $2 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 97¢ $2 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 29¢ $1 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) SELL Chicago White Sox 3¢ $0 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 38¢ $2 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) SELL Toronto Blue Jays 92¢ $2 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $2 1h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) SELL Boston Red Sox 37¢ $1 1h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 70¢ $2 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 70¢ $2 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 34¢ $1 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $2 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 78¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 29¢ $1 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $2 3h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 59¢ $1 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 47¢ $1 3h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL No 52¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.64 · official $30.72 (match) · 161 history records