Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62be…444c
sports · 169 markets active 0h ago
8.5score
+$3,268 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,549 · open −$280
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$620
Realized+$3,549
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses93 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$665
Open positions1
Markets (closed)168 / 169
Avg bet$668
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 1 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,445
7 days+$3,630
14 days−$2,475
30 days+$2,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ 36¢ $900 $620 −$280 (-31%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? No 49¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 36¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Movistar KOI 39¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Juan Manuel Cerundolo 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Burgos vs. Unicaja Unicaja 46¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming 62¢ 0¢ $490 $0 −$490 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 94¢ 0¢ $6,724 $0 −$6,724 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Team WE 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1,768 $0 −$1,768 (-100%)
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) KT Rolster 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 51¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner 3DMAX 32¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Casper Ruud 46¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 39¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 23¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 51¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 54¢ 0¢ $384 $0 −$384 (-100%)
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 36¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,014 +$836 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,009 −$925 -92%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $173 −$108 -63%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $173 +$54 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3,481 +$639 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $203 +$261 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,016 +$1,091 +107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,218 −$1,087 -34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3,003 +$216 +7%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $132 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,894 +$241 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $497 +$394 +79%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 10 $60 −$59 -98%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 10 $102 +$123 +121%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $1,606 +$929 +58%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $112 −$110 -99%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $69 +$53 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $319 +$348 +109%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,206 +$114 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,103 +$103 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $899 +$203 +23%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$50 +99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $102 +$268 +262%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $97 +$141 +145%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $78 −$77 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $748 +$30 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $71 +$71 +99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$154 +152%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $36 +$37 +105%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $455 +$82 +18%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $349 +$106 +30%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $302 +$47 +16%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $56 +$45 +81%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $97 +$119 +123%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $111 +$88 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $217 −$214 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $38 −$37 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $112 +$143 +128%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $389 −$384 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $102 +$118 +116%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $208 +$164 +79%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $102 +$107 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 95% +$3,231
other 5% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 53¢ $913 20m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $1,850 21m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 54¢ $1,014 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 6¢ $84 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 16¢ $65 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 70¢ $1,009 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $173 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $172 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 29¢ $51 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 24¢ $54 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 52¢ $122 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $4,120 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 84¢ $3,481 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $465 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $203 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $2,107 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 47¢ $1,016 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 61¢ $1,529 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 61¢ $602 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 91¢ $3,218 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $3,219 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 93¢ $3,003 22h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $132 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $3,134 26h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 92¢ $2,894 26h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $497 37h
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $60 39h
Valencia vs. Joventut SELL Valencia 99¢ $225 39h
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 44¢ $102 39h
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Olympiacos B.C. 34¢ $102 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +16.1% +5.1% 65% 53% +3.3%
≤30d 118 +10.0% -0.5% 60% 51% -7.3%
≤90d 158 +7.0% -3.2% 55% 48% -6.6%
all 168 +7.0% -3.2% 55% 48% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 48% -6.7%
10% -12.5% 43% -15.6%
15% -20.9% 40% -23.7%
20% -28.7% 38% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.81 · official $619.81 (match) · 287 history records