Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bd…d7d3 crypto 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (647 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18,142 (+7%) realized +$18,142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%456W / 282L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day647.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,793
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (647 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 738 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 42% -8.6%
≤30d 738 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 42% -8.6%
≤90d 738 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 42% -8.6%
all 738 -4.5% -13.6% 62% 42% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover647.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 42% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 41% -17.4%
15% -29.4% 40% -25.3%
20% -36.4% 36% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.66 per $1 lost it wins $5.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses456 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)738 / 675
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$392
Trades / day647.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 738 Trades
no open positions (258 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $396 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records