Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
62 0x62bd…3690 sports 334 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+0%) realized +$166 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate71%228W / 94L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$267
14 days+$1,062
30 days+$625
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$422
other 6% +$487
world 0% −$53
crypto 0% −$14
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +24.2% +12.4% 64% 61% +0.6%
≤30d 39 +33.7% +20.9% 67% 62% +4.0%
≤90d 234 -2.2% -11.5% 64% 47% -11.4%
all 322 +6.6% -3.5% 71% 56% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 56% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 43% -18.0%
15% -21.2% 30% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$114 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses228 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions4
Markets (closed)322 / 334
History coverage107d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 −$10 -22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $26 +$42 +165%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$43 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $123 +$77 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end Jun 18 $26 +$3 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $129 +$71 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $31 +$48 +157%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $72 +$28 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$30 +146%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $801 +$45 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$63 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$68 -67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $689 +$59 +8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 +$92 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $182 +$118 +65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $166 +$235 +142%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $103 +$97 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $131 +$144 +109%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $141 −$88 -62%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $281 −$276 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $143 +$157 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $234 −$229 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $128 −$126 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $101 +$28 +27%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $51 +$30 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $76 −$75 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $51 +$81 +158%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 02 $27 +$53 +197%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $40 +$9 +23%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $35 −$35 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $131 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $38 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 SELL 44¢ $68 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $57 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $10 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end SELL 28¢ $29 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $130 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 6¢ $31 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $26 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 24¢ $26 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND SELL 52¢ $79 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $31 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $129 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 20¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $34 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $72 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 40¢ $20 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.58 · official $235.58 · 870 history records