Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x62bd…52b6 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,897 (-8%) realized −$5,027 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%123W / 95L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$168
7 days−$1,877
14 days−$1,732
30 days−$1,676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$5,797
other 10% +$896
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -52.0% -56.6% 30% 30% -57.8%
≤30d 44 -13.8% -22.0% 55% 55% -21.8%
≤90d 90 -12.0% -20.4% 56% 53% -22.9%
all 218 -7.5% -16.3% 56% 52% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 52% -16.9%
10% -24.3% 44% -24.8%
15% -31.6% 39% -32.1%
20% -38.3% 28% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$229 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$5,027
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses123 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 219
History coverage284d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $200 $330 +$130 (+65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $263 +$150 +57%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $182 −$180 -99%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $263 +$177 +67%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $263 −$260 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $507 +$281 +55%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $451 −$446 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $397 −$392 -99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $556 −$554 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $223 −$223 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $434 −$430 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $203 +$168 +83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $161 +$30 +19%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $233 +$185 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $181 +$22 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $268 +$166 +62%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $151 −$150 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $203 +$232 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $332 +$61 +18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $473 +$122 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $351 +$56 +16%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $389 −$386 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $278 +$112 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $405 −$402 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $206 +$97 +47%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $99 +$36 +37%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $325 −$325 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $211 +$189 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $605 +$395 +65%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $298 +$102 +34%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $185 −$183 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $308 +$92 +30%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $320 +$116 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $310 +$190 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $156 +$244 +156%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $288 +$312 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $336 +$264 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 08 $290 +$145 +50%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 08 $284 +$116 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $675 −$675 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $35 +$16 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $348 +$52 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 50m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $182 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $263 3h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $263 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 86¢ $171 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 75¢ $223 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $121 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 4d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $26 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $397 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $161 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $340 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $26 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $223 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $161 6d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $273 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $161 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $181 7d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $233 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $151 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.30 · official $330.30 (match) · 927 history records