Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bc…4354 crypto 559 markets active 3h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate86%478W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$24
14 days−$19
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 +2.3% -7.5% 93% 18% -7.5%
≤30d 558 -6.9% -15.8% 86% 9% -10.3%
≤90d 558 -6.9% -15.8% 86% 9% -10.3%
all 558 -6.9% -15.8% 86% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 9% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 2% -18.9%
15% -31.2% 1% -26.7%
20% -37.9% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses478 / 80
Open positions0
Markets (closed)558 / 559
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 558 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1117 history records