Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62bc…97ac crypto 687 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,473 (-7%) realized −$2,193 · open +$720
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%209W / 472L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day41.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$817now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$893
7 days−$2,337
14 days−$2,333
30 days−$2,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,548
other 6% −$415
sports 1% −$111
politics 1% −$68
world 1% −$45
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$38
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -69.1% -72.0% 9% 7% -50.9%
≤30d 624 -27.0% -33.9% 30% 25% -21.9%
≤90d 681 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 25% -22.6%
all 681 -26.1% -33.1% 31% 25% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 25% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 22% -30.0%
15% -45.4% 19% -36.8%
20% -50.7% 17% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$817
Realized−$2,193
Unrealized+$720
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses209 / 472
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)681 / 687
History coverage66d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day41.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 2¢ 50¢ $35 $756 +$721 (+2059%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$14 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 +$5 +18%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $84 −$21 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$21 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $87 −$47 -55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $114 −$56 -49%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $153 +$30 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$16 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $130 −$74 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$55 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $86 +$29 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $166 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$75 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$47 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$39 +63%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $128 −$68 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$52 +256%
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$44 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$42 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$12 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $14 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 26m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 6¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $9 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $17 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $19 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $17 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 40m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 6¢ $5 44m
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $816.98 · official $816.99 (match) · 3378 history records