Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62bc…5053
sports · 27 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$854 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$293 · open +$519
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$14,216
Realized+$293
Unrealized+$519
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions17
Markets (closed)10 / 27
History coverage15d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 17 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $4,723 $5,289 +$566 (+12%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $1,631 $1,683 +$51 (+3%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 89¢ 80¢ $1,774 $1,588 −$185 (-10%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $963 $1,022 +$59 (+6%)
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 69¢ 91¢ $592 $778 +$186 (+31%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $685 $705 +$20 (+3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $690 $655 −$35 (-5%)
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? No 84¢ 89¢ $517 $547 +$30 (+6%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 99¢ $455 $496 +$41 (+9%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $350 $352 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $450 $303 −$147 (-33%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 82¢ 82¢ $280 $279 −$1 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $285 $232 −$52 (-18%)
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $178 $184 +$7 (+4%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 52¢ 36¢ $72 $50 −$21 (-30%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $290 +$110 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $226 +$42 +18%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $82 +$48 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$251 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $165 +$92 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $141 +$59 +42%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $53 −$21 -39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $344 +$256 +74%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $552 +$48 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% +$195
world 42% +$125
sports 13% +$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $89 52m
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $34 56m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $456 59m
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 92¢ $57 1h
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 90¢ $121 1h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $12 1h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $54 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $43 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $43 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $86 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $16 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $145 4h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $32 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $0 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 7h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 9h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $249 9h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $110 9h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $18 9h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $42 9h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $121 9h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $73 9h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $9 10h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 10h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.2% -4.8% 67% 67% +4.0%
≤30d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 70% 60% +2.6%
≤90d 10 +5.6% -4.5% 70% 60% +2.6%
all 10 +5.6% -4.5% 70% 60% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 60% +2.6%
10% -13.6% 50% -7.3%
15% -22.0% 50% -16.2%
20% -29.6% 30% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,215.95 · official $14,215.95 (match) · 126 history records