Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62ba…31db other 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 709d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$58 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%318W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$37
14 days−$85
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$171
sports 27% +$33
world 14% +$10
politics 7% −$11
crypto 6% −$7
finance 6% +$3
economics 1% +$4
tech 0% +$5
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 53% -6.2%
≤30d 72 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 54% -8.8%
≤90d 108 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 48% -13.8%
all 561 -1.4% -10.8% 57% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -10.5%
10% -19.3% 39% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 30% -26.9%
20% -34.3% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

709d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses318 / 243
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)561 / 564
History coverage709d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 26¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-45%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$23 +76%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$45 +74%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +57%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$19 +62%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 +$24 +80%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$38 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$35 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$22 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$10 +34%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$36 +119%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$19 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $30 +$35 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $15 +$11 +74%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $24 +$6 +23%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$5 +31%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$8 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 3h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 13h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 13h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 46h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $30 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $22 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 4d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $30 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.28 · official $74.28 (match) · 1155 history records