Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62ba…86fd sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$449 (+4%) realized +$411 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%137W / 94L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$220
14 days+$177
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +33.5% +20.8% 75% 75% +7.5%
≤30d 33 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 61% -5.7%
≤90d 144 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 52% -9.1%
all 231 +4.2% -5.7% 59% 58% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 58% -6.1%
10% -14.7% 49% -15.1%
15% -23.0% 38% -23.3%
20% -30.5% 30% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$39 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$411
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses137 / 94
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage147d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ 68¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $50 +$16 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $50 +$20 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $151 −$35 -23%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $100 +$15 +15%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $31 +$98 +321%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $51 +$42 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $151 −$41 -27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$48 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$25 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$22 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $171 −$43 -25%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $51 +$29 +58%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $51 +$41 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $50 +$12 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $30 +$30 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $80 +$16 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $50 +$19 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris (Welterweight, Main May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $51 −$7 -15%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $11 −$10 -94%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $101 +$22 +22%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $61 +$38 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $71 +$23 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $51 +$41 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $51 +$44 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 17 $51 +$27 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $51 +$27 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $51 +$27 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $50 +$9 +19%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $31 +$111 +360%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $61 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $51 30m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 99¢ $66 31m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 75¢ $50 56m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 100¢ $62 57m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 80¢ $50 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 100¢ $70 1h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $50 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 99¢ $79 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 63¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 33¢ $38 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 86¢ $100 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 99¢ $115 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 86¢ $100 3h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 99¢ $129 3h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $51 3h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 23¢ $31 3h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $92 4h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 54¢ $51 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $75 4h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 67¢ $50 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $69 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 54¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 15¢ $18 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $99 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $51 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $124 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $101 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $124 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.82 · official $87.82 (match) · 386 history records