Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62ba…f94f sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$110 (+5%) realized +$109 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate85%11W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$109
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +18.1% +6.8% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤30d 2 -41.0% -46.6% 50% 50% -35.8%
≤90d 5 +1.0% -8.7% 60% 60% -5.0%
all 13 +2.6% -7.2% 85% 31% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 31% -5.0%
10% -16.1% 15% -14.1%
15% -24.2% 15% -22.4%
20% -31.6% 15% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$510 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses11 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage149d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 13 $61 +$50 +83%
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) Mar 23 $1,030 +$1,072 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 Mar 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 22 $2 $0 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 22 $3 $0 +4%
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Mar 22 $4 $0 +4%
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 07 $3 $0 +1%
Wizards vs. Hawks Mar 07 $3 $0 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of January? Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22? Feb 23 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $102 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 BUY Under 73¢ $20 13d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 84¢ $30 13d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $61 38d
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5) BUY Nuggets 49¢ $1,030 89d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,000 89d
Will "The Bride!" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 104d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 98¢ $2 104d
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $4 117d
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 117d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 90¢ $3 117d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $180 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 149d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.28 · official $101.28 (match) · 25 history records