Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x62b8…7599
other · 99 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$44 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 88
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage108d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Wizards vs. Lakers Wizards 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Jazz Jazz 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $135 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $98 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $121 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $352 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $134 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $103 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $131 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $124 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $377 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $122 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $104 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$7
politics 34% −$5
sports 5% +$57
economics 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 15d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $144 20d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 21d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $146 22d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $146 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $136 23d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $136 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $105 25d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $105 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $98 25d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $98 26d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $120 26d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 27d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $121 27d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $121 28d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $133 28d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $133 29d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $139 29d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $139 31d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 31d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $114 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $106 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 32d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $107 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 93 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 3% -9.5%
all 98 +1.8% -7.9% 10% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 6% -9.2%
10% -16.7% 5% -17.9%
15% -24.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 278 history records