Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62b7…7492 crypto 837 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-5%) realized −$123 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%419W / 395L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$47
14 days−$29
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$125
other 12% −$10
sports 5% +$18
world 1% −$9
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 -30.7% -37.3% 39% 38% -33.8%
≤30d 365 -10.2% -18.7% 49% 46% -17.4%
≤90d 814 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 48% -16.3%
all 814 -4.5% -13.6% 51% 48% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 48% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 41% -24.3%
15% -29.4% 32% -31.6%
20% -36.3% 24% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$123
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses419 / 395
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)814 / 837
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 814 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Curaçao be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Haiti be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? No 85¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Portugal be the furthest advancing UEFA nation at the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 55¢ 45¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? No 46¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +543%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +34%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +21%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.87 · official $27.87 (match) · 2136 history records