Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
62 0x62b3…b43c crypto 1359 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$182 (+6%) realized +$183 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%572W / 785L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$27
14 days−$9
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$116
weather 31% +$242
sports 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -44.5% -49.8% 27% 27% -34.5%
≤30d 141 -4.7% -13.8% 36% 35% -18.2%
≤90d 459 +19.0% +7.7% 42% 39% +3.7%
all 1357 +21.4% +9.8% 42% 35% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 35% -8.8%
10% -0.7% 28% -17.5%
15% -10.3% 21% -25.5%
20% -19.1% 18% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses572 / 785
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1357 / 1359
History coverage186d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 347 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$11 +206%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $61 +$11 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$3 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$6 +539%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 3¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 20¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 78¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.47 · official $5.47 (match) · 3183 history records