Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62b2…91e9 other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 23% −$21
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)239 / 240
History coverage131d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $429 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $122 $0 +0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $306 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $295 −$2 -1%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $271 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $219 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $301 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $510 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $767 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $417 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $328 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 6h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 9h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 18h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 20h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $45 21h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $45 22h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $45 24h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $45 25h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 30h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 31h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 38h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 3d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.91 · official $44.91 (match) · 1366 history records