Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x62b1…310a other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-43%) realized −$323 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$71
politics 37% −$269
sports 18% +$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -52.4%
≤30d 5 -49.9% -54.7% 20% 20% -68.6%
≤90d 5 -49.9% -54.7% 20% 20% -68.6%
all 5 -49.9% -54.7% 20% 20% -68.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 20% -68.6%
10% -59.0% 20% -71.6%
15% -63.0% 20% -74.4%
20% -66.6% 0% -76.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$92 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$323
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage19d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 87¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 19¢ 64¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+234%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 $0 -1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $274 −$269 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $76 −$75 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.16 · official $211.16 · 20 history records