Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ae…9a9a other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$8
sports 24% −$14
politics 18% −$9
economics 10% +$1
world 8% −$9
crypto 5% −$2
culture 4% −$3
tech 3% −$3
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 110 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage159d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $46 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $479 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $277 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $585 −$1 -0%
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? Mar 17 $137 −$3 -2%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $139 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $142 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $137 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 13 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 12 $136 −$2 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $511 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $305 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $149 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $141 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 10 $304 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $236 −$3 -1%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 07 $301 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 05 $140 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 05 $2 $0 -2%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 05 $769 −$2 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $144 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $973 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Mar 04 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $826 −$3 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $324 −$2 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $335 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $33 5h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $26 11d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 12d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $23 12d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 20d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $46 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $38 33d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $38 33d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $134 90d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $3 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $10 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $6 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $7 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $8 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $5 91d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $62 91d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $130 91d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $131 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $126 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $127 91d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $136 91d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $135 91d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $130 91d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 91d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 91d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $126 91d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $126 92d
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 459 history records