Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
62 0x62ac…7166 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-25%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$32
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 0% -70.4%
≤30d 6 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 0% -44.5%
≤90d 6 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 0% -44.5%
all 6 -32.4% -38.8% 50% 0% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 0% -44.5%
10% -44.7% 0% -49.8%
15% -50.0% 0% -54.6%
20% -54.9% 0% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage20d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$33 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $23 −$8 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $1 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $2 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $6 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $10 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $8 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $10 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.47 · official $49.47 (match) · 21 history records