Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62ab…6489 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate7%10W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$18
politics 35% −$16
sports 10% +$4
tech 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 115 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 145 -2.4% -11.7% 7% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses10 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage125d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $464 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $215 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $244 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $409 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $183 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $195 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $409 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $252 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $526 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $179 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $263 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $248 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $261 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $245 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $228 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 8h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $217 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $217 23d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $255 23d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $256 23d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $215 24d
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $215 25d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 25d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 25d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $178 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 435 history records