Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a4…c680 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,079 (-12%) realized −$3,083 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%9W / 24L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$722per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$2,104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,975
7 days+$674
14 days−$313
30 days−$3,536
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,900
sports 2% −$627
crypto 0% −$40
politics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 36% -3.7%
≤30d 23 -18.2% -26.0% 35% 35% -23.9%
≤90d 33 -37.1% -43.1% 27% 27% -24.0%
all 33 -37.1% -43.1% 27% 27% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 27% -24.0%
10% -48.5% 24% -31.3%
15% -53.5% 21% -37.9%
20% -58.1% 15% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,012) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -52% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$471 vs −$326 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,104
Realized−$3,083
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses9 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage45d
Avg bet$722
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,000 $1,008 +$8 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,013 +$323 +32%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,012 +$626 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $162 +$75 +46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,025 −$153 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $701 −$693 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $492 −$479 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,531 −$1,732 -68%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $243 −$237 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,994 +$2,175 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +216%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,002 −$988 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? May 27 $1,513 −$7 -0%
New pandemic in 2026? May 27 $2,505 −$47 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $21 −$7 -33%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? May 25 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 23 $6,854 −$3,166 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 05 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Marco Rubio say "President" or "Trump" 30+ times during press bri May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? May 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 55m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,336 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,638 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 19h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the e SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $236 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $162 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $190 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $631 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $701 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $700 4d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $492 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $489 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $54 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $796 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $799 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $243 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $241 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $615 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,531 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,169 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,001 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,103.70 · official $2,103.70 (match) · 93 history records