Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
62 0x62a4…b898 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+1%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate93%41W / 3L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$2
crypto 21% +$96
sports 13% +$55
other 2% −$1
world 2% +$3
tech 1% +$2
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 2 -5.1% -14.1% 50% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 90% 0% -9.3%
all 44 +3.3% -6.6% 93% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 16% -8.5%
10% -15.5% 2% -17.3%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.2%
20% -31.1% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$44 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses41 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage584d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? May 06 $53 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? Mar 30 $51 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 30 $49 +$1 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in February 2026? Mar 05 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 13 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $68 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 07 $75 +$1 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 07 $75 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 07 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 29 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Sep 17 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 10 $132 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June? Jul 12 $30 +$4 +15%
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30? Jul 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 16 $56 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 12 $68 +$11 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 15 $22 +$24 +112%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 30 $87 +$3 +4%
Will Solana hit $300 by February 28 2025? Mar 13 $84 +$3 +4%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Feb 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 10 $22 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Feb 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 18 $8,115 −$3 -0%
Ethereum above $4,000 on December 13? Dec 18 $19 +$3 +18%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Dec 11 $77 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $769 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $752 +$17 +2%
Spurs vs. Jazz Nov 29 $126 −$126 -100%
Knicks vs. Mavericks Nov 29 $677 +$75 +11%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Nov 27 $186 +$30 +16%
Bucks vs. Heat Nov 27 $696 +$74 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 40d
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 42d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $36 42d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $54 42d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 69d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $28 69d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $53 69d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? SELL No 100¢ $10 78d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? SELL No 100¢ $11 78d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? SELL No 100¢ $30 78d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 93¢ $17 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $32 79d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $49 79d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $49 104d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $50 104d
Will NVIDIA reach $280 in March? BUY No 100¢ $51 104d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 124d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? BUY No 100¢ $50 124d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $40 124d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 98¢ $44 161d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY No 95¢ $100 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $68 191d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $75 191d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $101 191d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $41 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.23 · official $150.23 (match) · 234 history records