Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x62a2…1300 sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%15W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$4
politics 21% −$3
other 14% +$1
economics 9% −$1
tech 7% −$2
crypto 6% $0
world 6% −$1
culture 4% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 171 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses15 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage174d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $227 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $148 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $176 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $343 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $263 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $57 $0 -1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $47 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $48 13d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $57 20d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $57 20d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 28d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 28d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $49 40d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $49 40d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $50 127d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $50 127d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 127d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 127d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $56 127d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $56 127d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $50 127d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $51 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 127d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $53 127d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $53 127d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 127d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 127d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $54 127d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $54 127d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $57 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.84 · official $48.84 (match) · 649 history records