Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629f…349f crypto 882 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,419 (-11%) realized −$1,419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%431W / 451L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$8
14 days−$59
30 days−$960
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,810
sports 0% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 55% -8.2%
≤30d 445 -11.2% -19.6% 49% 48% -22.3%
≤90d 882 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 48% -21.3%
all 882 -10.9% -19.4% 49% 48% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 48% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 45% -28.9%
15% -34.1% 42% -35.7%
20% -40.6% 37% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses431 / 451
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)882 / 882
History coverage61d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 882 Trades
no open positions (403 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +88%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$3 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$15 +98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$6 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$28 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$12 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$13 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +118%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$8 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +94%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$16 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$6 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$10 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$8 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $35 +$13 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $22 −$21 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $21 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $36 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $35 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $29 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $33 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $36 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $15 33h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 34h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 41h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 45h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1422 history records