Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629f…f868 crypto 874 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-4%) realized −$170 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%346W / 527L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$190
14 days−$367
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$315
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -15.4% -23.4% 30% 13% -15.6%
≤30d 855 -11.4% -19.8% 39% 31% -16.2%
≤90d 855 -11.4% -19.8% 39% 31% -16.2%
all 873 -11.0% -19.5% 40% 31% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 31% -15.9%
10% -27.2% 24% -24.0%
15% -34.2% 17% -31.3%
20% -40.7% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses346 / 527
Open positions1
Markets (closed)873 / 874
History coverage156d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 54¢ 81¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 43¢ 18¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $95 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$6 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$6 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $76 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$7 -7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $83 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $65 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.02 · official $44.01 (match) · 3194 history records