Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629e…61eb other 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$66
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$79
sports 22% −$5
world 3% +$9
crypto 3% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.6% -12.8% 26% 26% -18.7%
≤30d 52 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 52 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 25% -21.7%
all 52 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 25% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 25% -21.7%
10% -24.2% 23% -29.2%
15% -31.5% 23% -36.0%
20% -38.2% 21% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$12 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$91 +442%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $68 −$66 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$9 -42%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$4 -17%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $15 +$78 +510%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$57 +1105%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 +$22 +263%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$13 +188%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $6 +$13 +216%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 +$49 +202%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$39 +128%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +123%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $16 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 9¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $21 13h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $13 28h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $31 28h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 29h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 30h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $111 30h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 33h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $20 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 37h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records