Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
62 0x629c…3f90 sports 992 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-1%) realized −$215 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%517W / 471L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$27
14 days−$2
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$168
other 1% −$29
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% −$5
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.0% -9.6% 66% 55% -5.1%
≤30d 149 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 642 -4.3% -13.4% 59% 43% -9.2%
all 988 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 41% -9.3%
10% -24.3% 28% -18.0%
15% -31.6% 20% -25.9%
20% -38.3% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses517 / 471
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions4
Markets (closed)988 / 992
History coverage234d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 988 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Belinda Bencic 88¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Rafael Jodar 84¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paige Bueckers have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 216 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 29 $119 +$24 +20%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $30 +$6 +21%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Jun 28 $31 −$17 -54%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 28 $30 +$6 +21%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $83 +$8 +9%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $9 +$6 +65%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli Jun 28 $50 +$27 +53%
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 28 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $38 +$6 +15%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Andrea De Marchi Jun 28 $28 −$18 -65%
ITF Tanger: Yassine Dlimi vs Karim Bennani Jun 28 $50 −$2 -4%
ITF Alkmaar: Pieter De Lange vs Marc Majdandzic Jun 28 $23 +$4 +18%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
ITF Porto: Mert Alkaya vs Carl Emil Overbeck Jun 28 $44 +$7 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Meiqi Guo vs Evialina Laskevich Jun 28 $5 +$2 +34%
ITF Sapporo: Miho Kuramochi vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
ITF Wuning: Matthew Dellavedova vs Max Purcell Jun 28 $5 +$1 +17%
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 28 $15 +$4 +26%
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $16 +$20 +125%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -19%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Jun 28 $9 −$5 -54%
Piracicaba (Doubles): Couto/Rodrigues vs Pino/Pino Jun 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $47 −$21 -44%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Jun 23 $25 +$3 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Mia Pohankova Jun 23 $19 +$11 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $18 +$1 +7%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $14 +$4 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $62 −$13 -20%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Eunhye Lee Jun 23 $16 +$5 +33%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $11 −$10 -92%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Matej Dodig vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Jun 22 $191 −$54 -28%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $96 +$36 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Liam Broady vs August Holmgren Jun 22 $49 −$11 -22%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $80 −$8 -9%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $5 −$3 -53%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $12 −$6 -45%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $4 +$4 +94%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Will Olivia Miles have the highest assists per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 17 $3 −$2 -84%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $58 −$18 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 63¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Belinda Bencic 88¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 84¢ $30 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $110 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 96¢ $28 2h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 61¢ $51 3h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL New York Liberty 40¢ $32 3h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY New York Liberty 44¢ $10 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $37 3h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $30 3h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 82¢ $30 3h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $2 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $37 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 82¢ $30 4h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics SELL PortlandFire 36¢ $13 4h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY PortlandFire 83¢ $30 4h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 66¢ $1 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky SELL Las Vegas Aces 91¢ $91 5h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 93¢ $47 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings BUY Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $9 11h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli SELL Ayana Akli 92¢ $10 11h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $36 11h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli SELL Ayana Akli 86¢ $36 11h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli BUY Ayana Akli 58¢ $41 12h
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Ayana Akli BUY Ayana Akli 65¢ $10 12h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg SELL Max Hans Rehberg 98¢ $51 13h
ITF Brussels: Dylan Dietrich vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 86¢ $44 13h
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 13h
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 86¢ $38 14h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Branko Djuric vs Andrea De Marchi SELL Andrea De Marchi 32¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.75 · official $69.75 (match) · 2801 history records