Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x629c…6c01
other · 143 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,658 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,444 · open −$31,232
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$33,803
Realized+$1,444
Unrealized−$31,232
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses65 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,224
Open positions89
Markets (closed)129 / 143
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3,145
Trades / day77.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 89 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,959
7 days+$26,959
14 days+$10,352
30 days+$30,115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 26¢ $3,527 $7,559 +$4,032 (+114%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 65¢ 90¢ $3,623 $5,064 +$1,441 (+40%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 87¢ $2,784 $2,770 −$14 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,640 $2,565 −$75 (-3%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,329 $2,347 +$19 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ $200 $1,815 +$1,615 (+808%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 72¢ 73¢ $1,622 $1,650 +$29 (+2%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1,762 $1,184 −$578 (-33%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,298 $1,140 −$1,158 (-50%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,768 $987 −$1,781 (-64%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $680 $670 −$10 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 58¢ 60¢ $580 $605 +$25 (+4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 60¢ 61¢ $534 $543 +$9 (+2%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,317 $482 −$1,835 (-79%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ $11 $413 +$402 (+3653%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,391 $344 −$2,047 (-86%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 18¢ $11 $263 +$252 (+2288%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ $57 $246 +$189 (+330%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $260 $245 −$15 (-6%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $104 $243 +$139 (+134%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $2,688 $215 −$2,473 (-92%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1,134 $210 −$924 (-81%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1,134 $194 −$939 (-83%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $1,134 $183 −$951 (-84%)
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $84 $150 +$66 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,480 +$1,520 +61%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $6,080 +$26,498 +436%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $3,123 −$1,279 -41%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $3,640 +$360 +10%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $900 +$100 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $960 +$1,040 +108%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1,968 +$32 +2%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,252 +$1,048 +46%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $4,673 +$510 +11%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10,080 −$10,080 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $513 −$419 -82%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $2,080 +$1,920 +92%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $2,300 +$2,700 +117%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $1,060 −$1,060 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1,800 +$8,200 +456%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $2,990 +$4,010 +134%
Will Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? Jun 01 $2,660 +$7,340 +276%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $30 +$7 +24%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $2,460 +$540 +22%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $3,420 +$2,580 +75%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $4,560 −$4,560 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $7,800 −$7,800 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 30 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $5,680 −$5,680 -100%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 30 $8,600 −$6,880 -80%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $4,700 −$4,700 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-17? May 26 $3,529 +$42 +1%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 20 $2,697 +$403 +15%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $4,200 +$5,800 +138%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $7,400 +$2,600 +35%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,478 −$1,478 -100%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 19 $6,660 −$6,660 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6,700 −$6,700 -100%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $4,320 +$4,680 +108%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $3,900 +$6,100 +156%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 18 $3,475 +$980 +28%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2,601 +$2,216 +85%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3,600 +$1,400 +39%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $2,640 +$3,360 +127%
Spread: Lille OSC (-1.5) May 18 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4,800 +$5,200 +108%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $774 −$774 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$20,509
sports 32% −$26,901
politics 13% +$16,181
tech 1% +$1,441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 60¢ $7 49m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $93 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $206 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $12 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $334 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $494 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $19 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $130 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $52 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $58 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 62¢ $744 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 66¢ $1,452 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 72¢ $26 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 72¢ $3 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 72¢ $32 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +117.1% +96.5% 75% 75% +171.7%
≤30d 63 +7.0% -3.1% 54% 49% +3.6%
≤90d 129 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 47% -9.2%
all 129 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover77.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 47% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 43% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 40% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 35% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33,803.41 · official $33,803.56 (match) · 3500 history records