Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x629a…24e9 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 34% −$1
politics 6% +$1
crypto 5% −$3
finance 4% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.6%
all 45 -4.9% -13.9% 38% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage404d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $87 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $80 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $80 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 01 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $41 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +1%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +6%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Dec 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $1 $0 -16%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $18 +$1 +8%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June? May 31 $9 $0 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Holger Rune win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 22 $1 −$1 -68%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 20 $6 −$3 -43%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 14h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $38 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $16 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $20 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $40 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $12 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $26 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $33 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $21 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $37 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $37 22d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $37 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $21 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $13 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $6 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.73 (match) · 171 history records