Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6299…2853
other · 12 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$5 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage230d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 5 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Qatar to win the second half? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Silvan Widmer: 1+ assists Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid vs. Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Feb 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14? Dec 29 $2 $0 +22%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $2 +$2 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$1
sports 47% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -44.3% -49.6% 29% 29% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.6% 29% -39.3%
10% -54.5% 14% -45.1%
15% -58.9% 14% -50.4%
20% -62.9% 14% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.73 · official $3.73 (match) · 22 history records