Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

62
0x6299…f879
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$14
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)15 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 6 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+113%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+68%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Yes 42¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +66%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $1 +$2 +126%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +135%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 65% +$4
other 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $1 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $2 4h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 20h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 25h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 35h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 35h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 43h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 43h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 43¢ $1 43h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 43h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 43h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? SELL Yes $0 44h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 86¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 52¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over $0 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $3 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $2 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 47% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 47% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 47% -10.0%
all 15 -7.0% -15.8% 47% 47% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 47% -10.0%
10% -23.9% 47% -18.6%
15% -31.2% 40% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 33% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.71 · official $13.81 (match) · 38 history records