Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
62 0x6298…8710 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$174 (+13%) realized +$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%22W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$65
other 33% −$122
sports 3% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 56% -8.9%
≤30d 36 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 56% -8.9%
≤90d 36 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 56% -8.9%
all 36 +4.1% -5.8% 61% 56% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 56% -8.9%
10% -14.8% 50% -17.6%
15% -23.0% 44% -25.5%
20% -30.6% 22% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses22 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $200 +$19 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$70 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$32 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $154 −$110 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$69 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 1h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 91¢ $200 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $38 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $171 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records