Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6297…1302 other 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,068 (-6%) realized −$2,061 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%111W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$90
14 days−$183
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,420
crypto 27% −$1,827
sports 7% +$95
world 1% −$132
weather 1% +$1,056
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 40% 40% -25.6%
≤30d 84 +4.8% -5.1% 42% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 281 -22.4% -29.8% 27% 27% -29.4%
all 382 -15.3% -23.4% 29% 28% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 28% -18.6%
10% -30.7% 27% -26.4%
15% -37.4% 27% -33.5%
20% -43.6% 26% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$69 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$2,061
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses111 / 271
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)382 / 384
History coverage103d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $45 $41 −$4 (-9%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 37¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $283 −$280 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $132 +$151 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $46 +$88 +194%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-22? Jun 08 $51 −$44 -86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $174 −$171 -99%
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $98 +$76 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$8 +159%
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will América FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $33 −$32 -98%
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $26 +$88 +344%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $51 −$50 -97%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $26 −$25 -98%
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? May 29 $101 +$194 +193%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $193 +$281 +145%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $89 +$138 +154%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $25 +$18 +73%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $25 +$35 +137%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Galatasaray vs. Besiktas May 28 $20 +$36 +178%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 28 $30 +$42 +140%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 27 $16 −$15 -97%
ITF Kayseri: Anastasiia Gureva vs Irem Kurt May 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $3 +$4 +119%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $40 −$40 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Chisinau: Francesco Maestrelli vs Kimmer Coppejans May 26 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $31 −$30 -96%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: China vs Indonesia May 26 $6 +$27 +438%
Will Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $92 −$90 -97%
Will FC Rapid 1923 win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $41 +$39 +97%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $17 +$31 +180%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $152 +$131 +86%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $153 +$242 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $3 59m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $46 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $29 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $283 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $132 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $134 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $46 5d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 9d
Will GV CD San José win on 2026-05-22? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 9d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $174 18d
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 99¢ $174 18d
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 55¢ $98 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 18d
Will Kalmar FF win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 18d
Will América FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 19d
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 15¢ $33 19d
Will CD Cobresal win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 19d
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 19d
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 16¢ $45 19d
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 19d
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 19d
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 19d
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 19d
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $295 19d
South Africa vs. Nicaragua: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $28 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.24 · official $41.24 (match) · 697 history records