Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
62 0x6293…675f crypto 640 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%388W / 249L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$118
14 days+$34
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$223
world 16% +$91
politics 16% −$183
weather 10% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +5.9% -4.2% 71% 29% -5.2%
≤30d 39 +3.0% -6.8% 69% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 400 -1.7% -11.1% 60% 31% -10.4%
all 637 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 39% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 32% -18.8%
15% -27.0% 25% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses388 / 249
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)637 / 640
History coverage108d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? No 91¢ 94¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? No 95¢ 92¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $502 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 19 $551 −$9 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $223 +$31 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $340 +$16 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $91 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $151 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $151 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$14 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$8 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $620 −$58 -9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $691 −$39 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $467 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $587 +$17 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? Jun 08 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $643 −$16 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $530 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $198 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $590 +$9 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? Jun 03 $300 $0 +0%
Will Lee Cheol-woo win the 2026 Gyeongsangbuk Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $300 −$20 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $542 +$67 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $545 +$7 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $535 +$10 +2%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 26 $266 −$80 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $256 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9PM ET May 21 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET May 20 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8PM ET May 20 $16 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET May 19 $180 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12AM ET May 19 $92 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8AM ET May 18 $177 −$4 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? SELL No 71¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $251 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 79¢ $40 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $106 16h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 94¢ $100 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $14 44h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $13 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $81 45h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $188 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $502 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? SELL Yes 99¢ $255 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.45 · official $405.71 (match) · 2455 history records