Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
62 0x628f…cb67 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+4%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%41W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$13
14 days+$7
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$26
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 50% -7.2%
≤30d 21 -13.3% -21.6% 57% 43% +0.4%
≤90d 103 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 37% -7.3%
all 103 -22.4% -29.8% 40% 37% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 37% -7.3%
10% -36.5% 34% -16.2%
15% -42.7% 31% -24.3%
20% -48.3% 31% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses41 / 62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)103 / 108
History coverage58d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $55 +$12 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $102 +$81 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $60 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 04 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 04 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 03 $7 +$8 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 03 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 03 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 03 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $44 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $40 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 36h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 8¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 54¢ $8 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 100¢ $183 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 216 history records